Grok Has a 20% Chance to Topple Google by 2025

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Grok Has a 20% Chance to Topple Google by 2025

• Google AI claimed 74% of global users in May.
• Groks 16% of users in May reflects a massive adoption trend for the AI solution.
• There is a 20% chance for Grok to surpass Google AI in 2025.

Google maintained its leadership position among artificial intelligence (AI) companies in May, according to new data from PolyMarket. The prediction platform projects this trend will continue until the middle of the year.

However, there is a 20% chance that other AI innovations could topple Googles leadership in the sector by the end of 2025.

Google is expected to remain the leader in AI through June.

— but there‘s now a 1 in 5 chance Grok/xAI are #1 by the year’s end.

— Polymarket (@Polymarket) May 13, 2025

xAI‘s Grok Emerges as Google’s Closest Rival in AI Chatbot Race

In its latest post on X, Polymarket spotted Grok, a generative artificial intelligence chatbot developed by xAI, as Google‘s closest rival and the AI solution with the potential of surpassing Google. Despite being relatively new, Grok developed rapidly and garnered significant adoption. The generative AI product attracted 16% of the global AI users in May, compared to Google AI’s 74%.

Although Grok launched in 2023, its explosion in the mainstream became pronounced in 2025. As an Elon Musk brainchild, the AI machine is integrated with X, Musks famous social media platform. Users describe Grok as an AI character with a “sense of humor.”

Groks availability of X plays a significant role in its widespread adoption. Users often interact with the AI personality on various topics, exploring its ability as an intelligent machine to gather information or find trails to solutions they seek.

It is worth noting that Grok AI averaged about 17.6 million active users each month between December 2024 and March 2025, highlighting its growing adoption. According to reports, around 6.7 million people use Grok daily, and analysts expect this figure to increase. For context, there are around 650 million active monthly users on X, highlighting the enormous adoption potential for Grok.

Google AI Still Prominent Leader Despite Groks Exponential Growth

In the meantime, Google remains the prominent leader in the overall AI industry, even with Groks exponential growth.

Google AIs 78% user dominance in certain AI overview metrics for May highlights its vast platform adoption, with some Google AI services clocking an estimated 1.5 billion monthly users. This is a feat that would take Grok or any other AI solution a notable effort and considerable time to achieve.