Bitcoin Price: Here’s Why a Drop Could Trigger a 12% Crash

Bitcoin price has barely moved in the past 24 hours. Its trading around $118,950, with weekly gains under 1%. While that might seem calm, the charts tell a different story.

There‘s a growing pile of high-risk long trades just under current price levels. If the market slips even a bit, these leveraged positions could start liquidating fast. That’s why traders should watch this zone closely.

Spot Flows Show Confidence, but Price Isnt Moving

Bitcoin has been stuck around the $118K mark for over 24 hours. Weekly gains are just 0.85%, which is low compared to the activity in altcoins.

But if you check netflows across exchanges, traders are still pulling BTC out. The weekly netflow chart clearly shows consistent red bars; this means more BTC is being withdrawn than deposited.

This pattern usually signals confidence. When traders move BTC to their wallets, it means they aren‘t looking to sell anytime soon. But despite this, the price isn’t rising. Thats the red flag.

If spot selling pressure isnt pushing prices down, then something else might be. And that “something” could be leverage.

Bitcoin price and net negative spot flows- Source: Coinglass

Liquidation Map Shows Leverage Risk Building Up

The real problem becomes clear when you look at the liquidation heatmaps. These maps show where leveraged traders could get force-sold (liquidated) if BTC price moves too far in one direction.

Binance liquidation map showing $6.39B at risk below $117K- Source: Coinglass

Across Binance, Bybit, Bitget, and Gate, there are over $42 billion worth of long positions stacked between $117K and $112K. Thats a huge wall of leverage.

Binance alone holds $6.39 billion in long liquidation clusters, many with 25x to 100x leverage. The higher the leverage, the smaller the price move needed to trigger a liquidation.

Gate liquidation map- Source: Coinglass

If BTC drops even 1–2%, it could start knocking out these long positions. When that happens, exchanges begin to auto-sell those positions into the market.

That can lead to a chain reaction: one long position triggers another, and the cascade deepens. This is how a small dip can quickly snowball into a 10–12% crash.

A liquidation map is basically a visual that shows where traders with leverage are positioned. It helps identify “danger zones” where selling pressure could increase suddenly. Right now, those zones are sitting just below $117K.

Bybit liquidation map favoring a long squeeze- Source: Coinglass

Bitcoin Price Action Near Support; Breakdown Risk Growing

BTC is still holding above the $117K support, but its barely holding. Fibonacci breakdown levels sit at $116,000, and there is decent support at $112,900 (previous all-time high).

If BTC falls below those levels, it could trigger the large stack of liquidations we just discussed.

Bitcoin price action- Source: TradingView

This means the chart doesnt just suggest a small pullback. It suggests a trapdoor; if $117K fails, a fast move to $103,000–$105,000 could come quickly.

That‘s a potential 12% drop from current levels. The fact that this is happening while netflows are still negative (outflows) shows the risk isn’t from spot selling. The danger is all leverage.

Do note that the bearish hypothesis might not hold if the Bitcoin price breaches the $121,000 mark or even makes a new all-time high above $124,000.

So, even though the price is stable now, its sitting on a ticking time bomb of overleveraged longs. If it breaks the wrong way, the speed and size of the drop could catch a lot of traders off guard.