Bitcoin (BTC USD) Long-Term Holder Outflows Surge, Volatile Times Ahead?

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC USD) Long-Term Holder Outflows Surge, Volatile Times Ahead？

October is almost over, and Bitcoin (BTC USD) price this month has demonstrated lower levels of excitement compared to previous expectations.

Investors have been growing weary over unfulfilled expectations especially with less than 2 months left on the 2025 calendar.

Some interesting Bitcoin statistics have emerged so far. For example, 2025 is now the year that Bitcoin experienced the highest level of outflows from long term holders even though the year is far from over.

A recent CryptoQuant analysis revealed that over 270,000 BTC coins that were previously dormant for more than 7 years were moved in 2025.

BTC movement 7yrs plus/ source: CryptoQuant

This means the 7-year-old plus Bitcoin was purchased at most at a $17,000 price point. In other words, the holders selling BTC this year were deep in profits.

Potential Reason & Impact of the Long-Term Sales

Outflows from long-term Bitcoin (BTC USD) holder addresses are among one of the signals that analysts use to identify potential cycle tops. However, smart money may move funds around for different reasons.

For example, investors have recently been flocking to gold courtesy of its safe haven status during tumultuous times.

Especially during tariff war escalations this year which triggered outflows from risk-on assets such as Bitcoin and stocks.

It was also plausible that periods of uncertainty encouraged some of the long-term investors to take some profits off the table.

Especially since the market has recently been pushing into new highs. Long term holders may have sold off some of their coins to avoid erosion during uncertain times.

Major outflows from long term Bitcoin holder accounts are historically common especially after a robust rally.

The sell pressure from such accounts may have contributed to bullish suppression after the recent Bitcoin price pushed to new ATHs above $126,000.

Analysts also believe that the outflows may have been linked to investors migrating their coins to new cold wallets for security purposes.

Additionally, the movements may reflect outflows from old miner addresses. The analysis also revealed expectations that coins held for over 7 years may reach 300,000 BTC before the end of 2025.

Volatile Times Ahead for Bitcoin (BTC USD) Price？

While outflows from long-term BTC holder addresses may have had an impact on Bitcoin (BTC USD) price, the cryptocurrency managed to stay above the $100,000 price level.

It maintained relative stability above $105,000. However, analysts anticipate more volatility in the coming weeks.

A major reason for those expectations was that Bitcoins log return distribution index recently confirmed changes in trader behavior.

A drop in the indexs mean return highlighted a negative value, signaling a drop in bullish momentum.

Its standard deviation registered an uptick earlier this week, which, according to CryptoQuant analysts, was a sign of rising volatility.

The indicator also adopted a negative skew which could signal that it was headed towards negative returns. An outcome typically characterized by a rise in short positions.

These observations coincided with the massive cumulative short liquidation risk amounting to $2.5 billion, that is, if price pushes above $4,000.

While rising shorts could signal liquidation risks ahead, it also underscores the bearish expectations. Moreover, whale and institutional demand remained weak, especially since mid-October.

This underscores the possibility of a capitulation event, which may pull BTC below $105,000. Nevertheless, the market is headed for yet another important week.

The FED is expected to announce its interest rate decision, and the odds have been leaning in favor of a potential rate cut. Most analysts anticipate a bullish outcome in case of rate cuts.