Analysts are split over their opinions on Bitcoin’s behavior as it continues to struggle under $100,000

Bitcoin futures volume bubble map.

According to CoinMarketCap, options pricing currently thinks there is only a 30% probability that Bitcoits the new year above $100,000, and that same data shows a 50% chance the asseds this year below $90,000, with Ethereum markets mirroring the same gloomy outlook with its 50% probability of closing under $2,900.

Timothy Misir from BRN Research has called the situation ad for BTC, and many factors will determine where it goes from here. According to Dr. Sean Dawson from Derive.xyz, both short-term and long-term volatility have surged together over the past two weeks, marking a new volatility regime.

Thirty-day implied volatility has also reportedly climbed from 41% to 49%, while six-month volatility rose from 46% to 49% simultaneously. The parallel increase is significant because long-term volatility typically moves more slowly unless traders are hedging sustained macro uncertainty.

Dawson believes the macro backdrop simply is not giving traders enough reasons to remain bullish into the close of the year.

21Shares has also maintained that structural fundamentals remain intact and that the selling pressure is simply a means of redistributing tokens from short to long-term holders. The firm has outlined $98,000 to $100,000 as the area of primary resistance and $85,000 as the first major support, with deeper demand sitting around $75,000 to $80,000 if the lower level breaks.

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