Global Liquidity Trends Suggest Shift in Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle

Bitcoin

Global Liquidity Trends Suggest Shift in Bitcoins 4-Year Cycle

The traditional Bitcoin 4-year cycle is being challenged by rising global liquidity, stablecoin expansion, and favorable policy shifts, suggesting a prolonged market growth phase that extends beyond historical halving-driven patterns and supports sustained Bitcoin appreciation.

• Rising stablecoin liquidity and high U.S. Treasury General Account balances indicate ongoing investor commitment, differing from past cycle drawdowns where capital typically exited.
• Coordinated monetary easing across major economies, including China‘s injections and Japan’s stimulus, creates a supportive environment for risk assets like Bitcoin.
• The end of U.S. quantitative tightening and potential bank lending relief could accelerate credit growth, aligning with historical periods of strong Bitcoin performance during liquidity expansions.

What Is Breaking the Traditional Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle？

The Bitcoin 4-year cycle, historically tied to halving events that reduce mining rewards every four years, is showing signs of disruption due to evolving macroeconomic factors. Global liquidity expansions and stablecoin inflows are driving Bitcoins price dynamics more than halvings alone. This shift suggests a longer, more sustained growth trajectory rather than the sharp peaks and troughs of previous cycles.

How Are Global Liquidity Trends Impacting Bitcoins Market Structure？

Global liquidity trends are fundamentally altering the Bitcoin 4-year cycle by providing a steady flow of capital into risk assets. According to analysis from Bull Theory, stablecoin supplies have continued to rise even amid market corrections, signaling that institutional and large-scale investors are accumulating rather than retreating. This pattern contrasts with earlier cycles, where drawdowns often led to significant capital outflows; instead, current reserves position the market for broader participation.

The U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) balance, hovering around $940 billion, represents excess liquidity that typically recirculates into financial markets, easing financing conditions and benefiting assets like Bitcoin. The cessation of U.S. quantitative tightening (QT) further amplifies this effect, as historical data shows Bitcoin rallying in response to such policy pivots. Internationally, China‘s ongoing liquidity injections, Japan’s recent approval of a substantial stimulus package alongside crypto regulation easing, and Canadas anticipated policy loosening create a synchronized global environment conducive to asset appreciation.

These trends underscore that Bitcoin‘s major advances over the past decade have correlated more closely with liquidity surges than with halving dates. For instance, periods of coordinated easing have preceded Bitcoin’s strongest rallies, often by several months, allowing the asset to outperform traditional markets. Experts emphasize that this liquidity-driven framework could extend the current bull phase well into 2026, decoupling Bitcoin from rigid four-year timelines.