Cardano Price Prediction: 40% ADA Rally Faces Headwinds as Retail Conviction Weakens

Momentum remained strong over the weekend. Data from TapTools shows trading volume rose to $16.11 million on Sunday. This marked a clear jump from $6.39 million recorded just a day earlier, highlighting renewed engagement across the network.

Unique trading wallets also climbed in December, reaching a monthly peak of 3,150. By Sunday, that figure stood at 2,200, showing participation remained well above earlier levels.

However, sentiment in the derivatives market tells a different Cardano price prediction story. Traders continue to take a defensive stance, reinforcing the bearish bias.

A Closer Look into ADA Price Prospects

Data from CoinGlass shows ADA futures open interest fell by 1.57% over the past 24 hours to $666.25 million. This move points to position closures and lower leverage.

At the same time, funding rates remain negative. The open interest–weighted funding rate sits at minus 0.0079%, signaling that traders are willing to pay a premium to maintain short positions.

Meanwhile, the top 11 cryptocurrency by market cap trades within a descending wedge on the daily logarithmic chart, defined by two converging trendlines.

The 1.5% drop could extend losses from Saturday and Sunday, however, any effort from bulls to continue buying could push similar gains as Friday when ADA/USD rose by 7%.

If the altcoin continues with the current momentum, the ADA price could move upwards and test the major trendline near $0.4350.

This will connect two crucial highs for Cardano price, the one that occurred on October 27 and the second one that occurred on December 9, 2025.

Moreover, selling pressure has also eased with the RSI rising to the oversold region at 38 and the MACD pushing closer to a bullish crossover.

On the downside, Cardano price has also found support around $0.3415 at the lower trendline of its descending wedge, a level traders are watching as a potential short-term floor.