HBAR price shows capitulation warning as downtrend persists

HBARs recent price action reflects a market firmly controlled by sellers. The downtrend accelerated after price lost the Value Area High, a level that previously marked fair value within the broader trading range. Since that breakdown, each attempt to recover has been met with selling pressure, resulting in a series of lower highs, a classic sign of bearish continuation.

One of the most telling developments has been the bearish retest of the Point of Control (POC). After initially breaking below this key volume level, HBAR attempted to reclaim it but failed, confirming the POC as resistance. In market auction theory, this behavior signals acceptance at lower prices rather than a temporary deviation. Once an acceptance below value is established, markets often seek out lower liquidity pools.

The loss of the Value Area Low (VAL) further reinforces the bearish thesis. Trading below the VAL indicates that price has exited the prior area of balance and entered a lower-value regime. This transition often leads to directional movement as the market searches for new demand.

In HBARs case, that search is now occurring near the $0.11 high-time-frame support, a level that has historically acted as a defensive zone for buyers.

From a market-structure perspective, the risk is amplified by the lack of significant support below $0.11. If this level fails on a closing basis, HBAR could quickly accelerate toward the previous swing low, where resting liquidity is likely concentrated. Such moves often unfold rapidly, as stop-losses are triggered and late sellers are forced to exit positions, the defining characteristics of capitulation.

Momentum indicators also support caution. Sustained bearish momentum typically persists until a clear structural shift occurs, such as a break in the sequence of lower highs or a reclaim of key resistance levels. Neither of these conditions has been met. Instead, each relief rally has been corrective and short-lived, reinforcing seller dominance.

Capitulation does not imply the end of a downtrend but rather an acceleration phase in which price moves aggressively to clear remaining liquidity. While capitulation can eventually set the stage for longer-term stabilization, it is often painful in the short term and occurs only after critical supports are decisively broken.

What to expect in the coming price action

As long as HBAR trades below the Point of Control and fails to reclaim value, downside risk remains elevated. A clean break below $0.11 could trigger a capitulation-style move toward the prior swing low. Any bullish invalidation would require strong buying pressure, a reclaim of the Value Area Low, and a break in the bearish market structure, signals that have yet to emerge.