Bitcoin Plunges, But Crypto Winter Could Soon Thaw

He says both spot and futures liquidity are deteriorating simultaneously. Historically, Bitcoin has never sustained a rally when both liquidity sources are trending bearish. In his view, the broader regime remains heavily negative.

According to his estimate:

• Q4 could mark the end of the broader bearish trend
• Q1 or Q2 of 2027 could see bullish momentum return

As for downside levels, he outlines several key zones:

• Around $45,000 would be a “typical” bear market bottom
• $30,000 becomes the fallback support if global macro conditions deteriorate
• $16,000 is the final major line that must hold to preserve Bitcoins long-term bull structure

One point Woo raises is that Bitcoin has only existed during a global macro bull market from 2009 to 2026. If that macro backdrop breaks down structurally, the assumptions investors rely on could change dramatically.

Woo has often been accurate in spotting Bitcoin bear market bottoms. In 2018, he said the price was near a bottom before it rebounded from around $3,200. In 2022, he again signaled a bottom near $15,500. While not perfect on timing, his on-chain models have worked well historically.

Jane Street Conspiracy？ Matt Hougan Says Its Much Simpler

While technical analysts debate support levels, social media has been busy hunting for villains. After earlier blame cycles targeting Binance, Wintermute, offshore hedge funds, and even “paper Bitcoin,” the latest name circulating online is Jane Street.

Matt Hougan is not buying it. He says the conspiracy theories are wild and constantly shifting. In his view, the real reason Bitcoin fell is far less dramatic. A large number of investors who were long Bitcoin simply decided to sell.

They sold:

• Spot Bitcoin
• Leveraged futures positions
• Covered calls written against Bitcoin

And they did it for multiple reasons:

• The four-year cycle
• Fears around quantum computing
• Reallocation into AI startups
• Profit-taking

According to Hougan, most of that selling pressure is now largely exhausted. He describes the current phase as a “classic crypto winter.” And if history repeats, a classic crypto spring will follow.