Bitcoin outperforms gold as Iran war shakes safe-haven trade

Bitcoin (orange) versus gold (blue). February 28-March 23, 2026. Source: TradingViewSafe haven investors get a margin call

Golds initial move on the start of the conflict was a fakeout. It spiked higher after the Strait of Hormuz oil tanker shipping lane closure but reversed hard.

US Treasury yields climbed and the dollar strengthened, two forces that typically dampen the price of gold regardless of how many warships are in the Persian Gulf.

The sizable SPDR Gold Shares ETF hemorrhaged $4.2 billion in the first week of the war, breaking the record for weekly outflows in the funds history.

Investors pulled 25 tonnes of physical gold backing from the worlds biggest gold ETF within seven days.

Bitcoin absorbed the same shock yet held onto its gain. It even outperformed the S&P 500 Index which has fallen over 3% since the war began.

Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio advised on the popular All-In podcast on March 3 that central banks are never going to want to buy BTC. “There is only one gold,” he claimed.

Since Dalios prediction, gold has dropped more than 15%. BTC, the asset Dalio dismissed, rallied.

Although BTC has performed well since the US authorized the bombing of Iran, it hasnt outperformed gold over longer recent time periods. Year-to-date, the gold price is flat versus the 20% loss for BTC. Over the past 12 months, gold is up 44% versus a 17% loss for BTC.