Iran gives Trump 20 hours to surrender as ceasefire odds plummet to 1%: FT

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Iran gives Trump 20 hours to surrender as ceasefire odds plummet to 1%: FT

An advisor to Iran‘s Ghalibaf has given Trump 20 hours to surrender or face action from Iran’s allies. The odds of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 have dropped to 1% YES, down from 2% yesterday.

Irans statement suggests potential activation of its proxies, casting doubt on a ceasefire. The April 7 deadline is four days away, with the market nearly ruling out a resolution. The April 15 market is at 6% YES, indicating skepticism about near-term diplomacy.

Further out, the April 30 ceasefire odds fell to 17.5% from 24% in the last 24 hours. The May 31 market dropped to 36.5% YES, showing expectations of ongoing tension into early summer.

USDC volume is key. Nearly $431K traded across sub-markets in the last day. The April 7 markets thin order book requires just $12,352 to shift the price 5 points. The April 30 market is more stable, needing almost $20K for the same move.

The ultimatum dims immediate ceasefire prospects. However, an April 30 resolution offers a 5.7x return on a 17.5¢ YES share if tensions ease soon.

Watch for diplomatic efforts from Oman or Qatar, or shifts in rhetoric from Trump or Iran. These could change the odds significantly.