5 Types of Data Indicating the Bull Market Commencement in the Crypto Industry?

At the beginning of 2023, investors had almost no hope for a recovery in the crypto market, but the events that unfolded this year have surprised most market participants with the soaring prices of Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and many other altcoins. The high volatility in the crypto market seems to be intensifying, and it is anticipated to usher in a bull market in 2024.

The global

cryptocurrency

market cap has reached $16.9 trillion, marking a 112% increase over the past 12 months. Bitcoin and Ethereum prices have surged by 154% and 93%, respectively. This growth is even more significant in the case of altcoins, such as Solana and Avalanche (AVAX), which have risen by 880% and 250%, respectively, during the same period.

The primary factors driving the surge in cryptocurrency prices include the increased likelihood of Bitcoin spot ETF approval, the successful upgrade of the Ethereum network in Shanghai, and the Bitcoin halving.

The Likelihood of Approval for a Bitcoin Spot ETF Increases

According to Bloomberg's ETF analysis, there is a 90% probability of the approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF by January 10th, which is the final statutory deadline set by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for some applications.

If approved, such an ETF could attract more institutional investors into the field, which would not only have a positive impact on Bitcoin but also on the prices of other cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin advocate Michael Saylor, the founder of MicroStrategy, expressed that the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF might be the most significant development on Wall Street in the past thirty years.

Various Investor Groups Are Accumulating Bitcoin

Bitcoin holders are showing confidence in BTC by increasing their holdings. On-chain data from Glassnode reveals a reversal in trend, indicating that long-term holders are optimistic about the prospects of the Bitcoin bull market, leading them to continue accumulating holdings.

Tracking the balance of long-term holders has always been a strong indicator for determining price tops and bottoms. In each market cycle, the accumulation by holders is prominently visible until the local price reaches its peak, at which point holders start selling off in large volumes to realize profits.

Moreover, a more significant sign is the accumulation exhibited by Bitcoin whales holding at least 1000 BTC, historically appearing before substantial rebounds.

Bitcoin Halving and Historical Data Highlighting Potential

The price trends of Bitcoin often exhibit cyclical patterns. Analysts compare the current price trajectory with historical patterns, implying that the current situation might resemble potential bull market cycles seen in 2013 and 2017.

Similarly, Bitcoin's historical bull markets typically follow a four-year cycle, often driven by events like Bitcoin halvings, which decrease the speed at which miners create and earn new bitcoins.

The next halving event is projected to occur in the spring of 2024. Past data suggests that bull markets might commence a few months before the halving event and continue until Bitcoin prices reach new all-time highs.

In fact, with less than six months until the halving event, more and more people are predicting that the price of BTC will reach six figures.

Continued Upsurge in Cryptocurrency Market Sentiment

Recently, the social media sphere has witnessed a resurgence of positive sentiment. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index serves as a barometer of investor sentiment, and the current score of 73 indicates that the market is generally in a greedy state.

It's worth noting that this index remained above 50 for most of 2023, indicating a positive attitude among market participants towards the broader crypto market. Such patterns of market sentiment have historically been precursors to price increases, potentially serving as an indicator of an impending bull market. Interestingly, the last time market sentiment reached this level of greed was in November 2021 when Bitcoin reached its all-time high (ATH) of $69,000.

Technical Indicators Reflecting Traders' Bullish Sentiment

On October 23rd, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization surged past the 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), reaching $1.1 trillion, and as of the time of writing this article, the total market cap has reached $1.632 trillion. Buyers may have set their sights on the peak range of $2.168 trillion from April 2022. Technical traders look for these key indicators ahead of an anticipated reversal.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the global cryptocurrency market cap has entered the overbought zone, nearing a resistance level around 80 points, which reinforces the dominance of bulls in the market. The EMA has also formed a bullish crossover on the weekly chart

Furthermore, if buyers establish support above the key level of $1.75 trillion with positive trading volume, the upward trend lasting for three months might extend into 2024.