BitMEX Founder Forecasts Bullish Bitcoin Surge Despite US Treasury Worries

Key Points:

• BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes presents a counter-narrative, suggesting Bitcoin wont dip below $20,000 but rather consolidate around $25,000 in Q3.

• Hayes underscores the unexplored link between the US Treasury market and Federal Reserve control.

• He posits that quicker Federal Reserve detachment could trigger rate cuts and increased QE, shaping Bitcoins stability.

BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes shared his insights on Bitcoins potential price movement for the upcoming quarter.

While opinions about the cryptocurrencys trajectory vary, Hayes diverged from the bearish sentiment by suggesting that Bitcoin might not dip below $20,000 again. Instead, he anticipates a period of consolidation around the $25,000 mark in the beginning of Q3.

Hayes attributed his prediction to a critical factor: the state of the US Treasury market and its relationship with the Federal Reserves control. He expressed the view that the pace at which the Federal Reserve loses its grip on the US Treasury market could have a direct impact on both interest rates and quantitative easing (QE) measures. According to Hayes, this connection is not yet fully grasped by the market.

The founder‘s perspective hinges on the notion that if the Federal Reserve’s influence over the US Treasury market wanes rapidly, it could trigger a renewed series of rate cuts and further QE efforts. These actions, in turn, might affect Bitcoins price dynamics, leading to a period of relative stability in the $25,000 range, as he suggested.

Hayes‘ insights have sparked interest and discussions within the

cryptocurrency

community. His past experience as the co-founder of BitMEX, a leading crypto derivatives trading platform, adds weight to his viewpoint. However, the volatile nature of the cryptocurrency market makes it clear that predictions are inherently uncertain, and various external factors can swiftly alter the trajectory of Bitcoin’s price.

Bitcoin Price Real-time

Until mid-August, it appeared as though 2023 could be a breakout year for Bitcoin. The token was up 83% and continued high inflation meant that investors were flocking to BTC as an inflation-proof asset similar to gold.

However, Bitcoins momentum first stalled, then faltered. Inflation cooled down while interest rates remained high, encouraging investors to switch from holding BTC to holding treasury bills. Increasing scrutiny of the crypto market by regulators spooked many institutional investors, who have reduced their holdings in digital assets.

Right now, Bitcoin‘s Fear and Greed Index is at 44, indicating fear in the market. That’s a significant change from a month ago, when the index was at 66 and signaled greed. The index considers volatility, trading volume, social media sentiment, and search trends.

This storm of bad news for Bitcoin has been reflected in the coins price action. Bitcoin has been unable to maintain a break above the key $30,000 resistance level and instead has trended downward to repeatedly test support.

Bitcoin Price Prediction 2023-2030

• The current price of BTC is $25,925, up from $16,605 at the start of 2023.

• The Bitcoin Fear and Greed index is at 44, signaling Fear, down from 64 a month ago.

• BTC has broken below strong support at $26,760 on above-average trading volume, indicating a breakdown below its recent trading range.

• Based on our analysis, Bitcoins price will fall to $21,525 by the end of 2023. This is a potential loss of 17% by the end of the year.

• By the end of 2025, we expect BTC to rise to $45,200, a gain of 74.3% from todays price.

What Do Other Analysts Predict for Bitcoin？

Bitcoin is a major global asset, and some of the smartest analysts in the world spend their days thinking about where this cryptocurrency could go next. Here are several diverse predictions from crypto analysts and institutional investment firms.

CoinCodex: $427,000 by 2025

Cryptocurrency data firm CoinCodex developed Bitcoin Rainbow Chart which predicts

Bitcoin price

to reach up to $427,000 by the end of 2025. The analysis is based on Bitcoins past volatility and cyclical nature of Bitcoin halvings, which introduce extra supply-side pressure on Bitcoin every 4 years.

TechDev_52: $160,000-$180,000 by December 2023

Crypto analyst TechDev_52 analyzed Bitcoins highs as a series of cycles on a logarithmic timescale. According to this unique analysis method, the next cycle should culminate in a peak in December 2023 in the range of $160,000-$180,000.

According to ARKInvest analyst Yassine Elmandjra, Bitcoin could reach a price of $1 million by 2030. This analysis is based on the idea that Bitcoin is still an immature market that will realize many new use cases over the next several years.

Mike McGlone, Bloomberg Intelligence: $100,000 by 2030

Mike McGlone, senior commodity analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, told crypto brokerage Capital.com that Bitcoin could reach $100,000 by 2030. McGlone sees rising demand combining with BTC scarcity to send the price of Bitcoin higher.

Cezary Graf: $2,700 upon collapse of Tether or Binance

Crypto analyst Cezary Graf sees significant risks ahead for Bitcoin. He predicted that if either Tether, the largest stablecoin, or Binance, the largest

crypto exchange

, were to collapse, then Bitcoin could fall as low as $2,700.

Charles Edwards, Capriole Investments: $100,000 in 2023-2024

Charles Edwards, a crypto analyst and founder of Capriole Investments, predicts that Bitcoin could reach $100,000 in the next 12 months. His prediction is based on what he calls a “bump and run” pattern on the Bitcoin price chart, which is a bullish pattern that only requires Bitcoin to remain above $22,000.

What Influences the Price of Bitcoin？

Bitcoin is influenced by a wide variety of factors both within the crypto market and in the global economy.

First, within the crypto market, Bitcoin is a sort of reserve currency. When the crypto market is doing well, money typically flows out of Bitcoin and into more speculative investments. When the crypto market is performing poorly, crypto investors often retreat to Bitcoin.

So, the price of Bitcoin can rise even in a crypto bear market, at least to the extent that investors do not exit crypto entirely.

Bitcoin is also influenced by macroeconomic factors like inflation and interest rates. In general, high inflation is seen as positive for Bitcoin because it is considered an inflation-proof asset. However, high interest rates are bad for Bitcoin because they encourage investment in safer yield-generating assets like treasuries and bonds.

The regulatory environment around the crypto market can also influence Bitcoins price. Bitcoin is generally unaffected by new regulations targeting altcoins. However, new regulations or fear of regulations can push investors into Bitcoin as opposed to other digital assets.

Finally, the price of Bitcoin is influenced by supply and demand. The supply of Bitcoin increases as new BTC is mined, but the maximum supply is limited to 21 million BTC. Demand can vary widely based on interest in crypto investing, adoption of BTC as a payment method, and more.

Conclusion

Bitcoin is the worlds largest cryptocurrency and a significant focus for anyone who thinks about the future of crypto. Bitcoin has had a great start to 2023, but its momentum may now be turning bearish. We predict a bullish long-term future for Bitcoin, but investors may need to be patient in the meantime.