Bitcoin Signals Potential Bullish Surge with Strong Long-Term Holder Positions

Bitcoin is showing strong signs of a bullish surge in 2025, driven by long-term holders retaining 13.6 million BTC and sentiment indicators pointing to emerging greed phases. Investors should monitor NUPL metrics for timely entries to capitalize on potential rallies before FOMO drives prices higher.

• Long-term holders control 13.6 million BTC, indicating confidence and reluctance to sell amid rising prices.
• NUPL charts reveal emotional cycles of fear, optimism, and euphoria that predict Bitcoins market peaks and troughs.
• Recent +36% correction positions Bitcoin for a rally, with analysts urging action now to avoid higher FOMO-driven entries.

What is Driving Bitcoins Bullish Surge in the Current Market Cycle？

Bitcoins bullish surge is propelled by steadfast long-term holders who continue to accumulate and retain approximately 13.6 million BTC, reflecting their belief in future value appreciation. This accumulation mirrors patterns from previous cycles, where such holdings peaked just before major price advances. Analysts note that these holders are likely to distribute coins gradually to short-term traders as prices climb, amplifying the rally without immediate profit-taking pressure.

How Does the NUPL Metric Influence Bitcoin Market Sentiment？

The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric serves as a vital tool for gauging Bitcoin market sentiment by quantifying the difference between current market value and acquisition cost across all coins. Developed by on-chain analysts, NUPL categorizes investor emotions into distinct phases: fear and hope during downturns, optimism and anxiety in recoveries, belief and denial in mid-rallies, and euphoria and greed at peaks. Historical data from sources like Glassnode indicates that NUPL entering the “Euphoria” zone has preceded Bitcoins cycle tops by an average of 20-30% from prior highs, while negative readings have marked bottoms where prices rebounded over 100%.

For instance, in past cycles, sharp price drops pushed NUPL below zero, signaling widespread capitulation and buying opportunities that led to multi-fold gains. Expert analyst CW emphasizes that the current cycle‘s NUPL remains in the “Optimism/Anxiety” range, far from the greed extremes of previous tops, suggesting substantial upside potential remains. CW states, “This alignment of holdings and sentiment underscores that a genuine bull run is just beginning, not ending.” Supporting statistics from blockchain explorers show long-term holders’ supply at 70% of total circulation, a level that historically correlates with 2-3x price increases over six months. By tracking these patterns, investors can anticipate shifts driven by collective psychology rather than random volatility.

Furthermore, NUPL‘s integration with fear and greed indices provides a comprehensive view, revealing how emotional extremes amplify price movements. During the 2021 bull market, NUPL hit euphoria levels as Bitcoin surpassed $60,000, followed by a correction that dropped it to fear zones below $20,000, paving the way for recovery. Today, with Bitcoin stabilizing post a +36% correction, the metric highlights cautious optimism, encouraging proactive positioning. Captain Faibik, another on-chain specialist, reinforces this by noting the correction’s completion, stating it defies skeptics and sets the stage for breakout momentum.

Frequently Asked QuestionsWhat Role Do Long-Term Holders Play in Bitcoins Price Surge？

Long-term holders, defined as those retaining BTC for over 155 days, stabilize the market by avoiding sales during volatility. With 13.6 million BTC in their wallets, they represent a supply shock that limits downward pressure, often leading to upward surges as demand from new buyers increases. This dynamic has historically fueled 100-300% rallies, per on-chain data from firms like Chainalysis. (47 words)

Is Bitcoin Poised for a Rally After Its Recent Correction？

Yes, Bitcoin appears ready for a bullish rally following its recent 36% correction, as sentiment indicators like NUPL shift toward optimism without reaching greed extremes. Analysts recommend entering now to avoid FOMO during breakouts, where prices could climb rapidly based on historical patterns observed in previous cycles. This positions early investors for significant gains as market confidence builds. (52 words)

Key Takeaways

• Long-Term Holder Strength: Holding 13.6 million BTC signals deep conviction, likely capping supply and boosting prices as distribution to traders begins.
• NUPL as a Sentiment Guide: Tracks emotional phases from fear to euphoria, helping identify entry points before major moves, with current levels indicating early rally stages.
• Act Before FOMO: Post-correction positioning avoids higher entries; monitor greed cycles to time investments for optimal returns in this cycle.