XRP Tests Key 44 EMA as Analyst Outlines Three Possible Price Paths

At the moment, XRP is trading at $1.39, down 2.3% in the past 24 hours. The decline adds to its broader losses, with XRP down 27% over the past month and 46% over the past year.

XRP Nears Key Monthly Support

In his analysis, EGRAG says XRP is trading close to its 44 Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the monthly chart, a level he considers historically important. The 44 EMA serves as a long-term trend indicator. In past cycles, monthly closes below this level led to deeper pullbacks, while holding above it supported further upside.

His chart shows XRP trading within a long-term ascending channel. The lower boundary has acted as strong support for years, while the upper boundary has capped previous rallies. After recently approaching the top of the channel, XRP pulled back and entered what EGRAG describes as a corrective phase.

Even so, the broader channel structure remains intact. EGRAG emphasized that the macro trend is still unbroken, although short-term weakness is evident. He also outlined three possible scenarios that could determine XRPs next move.

Scenario One: Monthly Close Below 44 EMA

In the first scenario, XRP closes a monthly candle below the 44 EMA. The analyst says this would weaken the broader structure and signal fading momentum.

If that happens, XRP could drop toward the $0.65 to $0.85 range, which he identifies as a potential liquidity zone. A move into this area would mark a deeper correction within the long-term ascending channel.

However, this would still be seen as a continuation of the current correction — not a full reversal of the macro trend.

Scenario Two: Relief Bounce Toward $2.20

The second scenario assumes XRP holds above the 44 EMA and rebounds. In that case, the analyst sees $2.20 as a likely relief target within the channel.

Still, he warns that a move to $2.20 would not automatically confirm a new bull run. It could simply be a short-term bounce followed by further consolidation.

Since $2.20 sits near the mid-to-upper part of the channel, XRP would need sustained strength above that level to shift overall market sentiment.

Scenario Three: Confirmation Above $2.30

For XRP to resume a stronger move toward previous highs, it must secure sustained monthly closes above the $2.20–$2.30 range. The analyst says only clear acceptance above this zone would reopen the path toward new all-time highs.

Until then, he maintains a neutral-to-bearish short-term outlook, while stressing that the long-term trend remains intact as long as the broader ascending channel holds.

The upcoming monthly close could offer clearer direction, especially as traders watch whether XRP defends or breaks below the 44 EMA.

Whats Next For XRP？

On-chain data from analytics firm Santiment shows a spike in XRPs realized losses, with about $908 million sold at a loss. This suggests weaker holders may be exiting the market. A similar spike in 2022 was followed by a 114% rally, raising the possibility that forced selling could again set the stage for a rebound.

XRPs near-term direction depends on holding $1.2919 and reclaiming $1.4744. If the recent realized losses signal capitulation similar to 2022, maintaining support above $1.2919 and closing above $1.4744 could open the door to a 100%+ rally in the months ahead.

On the downside, a break below $1.2919 may send XRP toward $1.15 and possibly $1.00 if selling pressure continues, weakening the bullish capitulation thesis.