Bitcoin price prediction: Is the bottom in or just a fake BTC rally?

Bitcoin (BTC) price rallied to its highest level since early February 2026 on April 22, amid uncertainty whether its a bull trap or a full-scale reversal.

The BTC price pump from its February bottom, around $63,000, to over $78,200 at press time has convinced , an on-chain analytics platform, that the bear market is over. Furthermore, Bitcoin price has rebounded above the average cost basis of recent buyers around $74,000, according to analytics from .

BTC price and realized price for coins transferred in the last 1-3 months. Source: Glassnode

With many recent Bitcoin buyers above their breakeven price, noted that the early phase of a bull market is at hand.

“Bitcoins price is still well below its October highs, but many recent buyers are back to breakeven, potentially signaling that Bitcoin has put in a durable market bottom in the $65,000 to $70,000 range,” Glassnode noted.

However, BTC price could be forming a possible macro pennant pattern, which is a bearish continuation after a multi-week consolidation, based on analysis from Aksel Kibar, a former fund manager. Kibar stated that Bitcoin price must rally above the upper border of its bearish flag and the 365-day Moving Average (MA) to confirm a macro bull market.

BTC/USD 1-day chart analysis. Source: TradingViewInstitutional investors bet on a fresh Bitcoin rally

Since Bitcoin price bottomed earlier in February, its supply on all crypto exchanges has fallen to a multi-year low of about 2.67 million BTC at the time of publication, as per metrics from . As such, the current Bitcoin consolidation differs from that observed in the fourth quarter of 2025, as investors were depositing funds into exchanges, thereby adding bearish pressure.

Bitcoin reserves on all exchanges. Source: CryptoQuant

The significant BTC withdrawals from crypto exchanges have coincided with a renewed demand from institutional investors. For instance, BlackRocks iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has purchased BTC worth over $1.6 billion in the past 10 days. Meanwhile, Strategy Inc. (MSTR) acquired more than $2.5 billion in BTC earlier this week, as Finbold noted.