Dollar stablecoins could improve FX access but amplify currency runs: IMF paper

Dollar stablecoins could improve access to foreign currency in economies with fixed or heavily managed exchange rates, but may also amplify currency runs when pressure on the domestic currency becomes severe, according to a new paper published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The findings come from a working paper by economist Brandon Joel Tan. Titled “Stablecoins and Fragility in Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes,” the paper modeled how stablecoins affect parallel foreign-exchange (FX) markets when official dollar access is rationed.

The findings highlight that stablecoins can help people get access to dollars when banks or official exchange channels cannot meet demand. However, during a currency crisis, the same widely watched stablecoin price could prompt many people to abandon the local currency simultaneously, suggesting that regulators may need temporary limits on unusually large or panic-driven transactions.

Tan argued that stablecoins make “dollar-like claims easier to access” while creating a visible, high-frequency price for dollar demand. When a countrys official exchange rate is far from the market rate, that price can signal growing dollar scarcity and prompt more people to move out of the local currency at the same time.

Stablecoins emerge as parallel FX benchmarks

The paper's argument reflects how stablecoins are already being used in countries where official access to dollars is limited. On June 9, 2025, Bolivian airport retailers were seen pricing goods using USDT as a reference, while still accepting US dollars or bolivianos.

In 2024, Cointelegraph reported that Argentines were using underground “crypto caves” to exchange pesos for dollar-stablecoins at rates closer to the unofficial market. The practice gave residents another way to preserve savings as the peso lost value and currency controls restricted access to the dollar.

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While these uses highlighted the benefits of stablecoins, regulators have also recently warned about broader risks. On March 24, the Financial Stability Board (FSB) said dollar stablecoins could expose emerging economies to currency substitution, weaker monetary policy and the circumvention of capital-flow measures.

The FSB urged lawmakers to assess how the stablecoin sector develops to understand and respond to liquidity and operational risks as stablecoins interlink with the broader financial system.