What Could Drive the Next Move?

Finance

What Could Drive the Next Move？

Ethereums price has fallen by 4.6% in the past 24 hours, currently trading around $2,438, according to CoinMarketCap.

While the recent drop has caught trader attention, several project-specific and macroeconomic factors could play a major role in ETHs next direction.

Network Upgrades: Scaling and Staking Dynamics

The May rollout of the Pectra upgrade brought enhanced Layer-2 throughput and support for smart accounts. Ethereums upcoming Fusaka hard fork later this year targets 10x Layer-1 scaling through PeerDAS, potentially restoring market share lost to Solana, which now processes over 3x more DEX volume despite lower TVL.

Meanwhile, Ethereum‘s Proof-of-Stake (PoS) mechanism acts as a reflexive floor under prices. For every 1% decline in ETH’s value, staking yields rise by roughly 1.2%, incentivizing buy pressure. With 34.6 million ETH staked (worth $86B), this yield sensitivity provides a built-in support system as prices dip.

Institutional Trends: ETF Momentum and Liquidity Risk

Despite the price pullback, ETH ETFs have attracted $700M in inflows between May 22 and June 4, contrasting with $55M in outflows seen during earlier price rallies. If the SEC approves staking-enabled ETFs, analysts estimate that 5–8 million ETH could be locked up, further constraining supply.

Still, concentrated whale holdings remain a risk, with 82.35% of ETH supply controlled by large wallets, making the asset vulnerable to sharp volatility.

Global liquidity trends also weigh heavily. With the Federal Reserve holding rates steady, any future shifts in U.S. monetary policy could have outsized influence on Ethereum—potentially overriding network-level growth.

Technical Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels

Ethereum now trades below key moving averages, including the 50-day SMA at $2,465 and the 200-day SMA at $2,608, signaling near-term weakness. The MACD histogram at -36.83 points to persistent bearish momentum.

However, there are bullish undercurrents:

• RSI(7) at 28.49 suggests oversold conditions.
• Fibonacci support lies at $2,371, while resistance emerges near $2,758.

Rising transaction fees—$199.2M in May compared to $121M in April—also indicate growing usage and network demand.

Conclusion

Ethereums short-term dip reflects a mix of macro uncertainty and internal network shifts. As upgrades like Fusaka take shape and ETF developments evolve, ETH could find renewed strength. But with whale concentration and Fed policy looming large, volatility may remain the name of the game.