Can XRP really hit $10? A 2025 look at its tech, trials, and tokenomics

Source: XRP/USD, TradingView

SECs fight is over!

Ripple Labs long, exhausting war with the SEC is finally over. The fight, which kicked off back in December 2020, ended not with a bang, but with both sides deciding to walk away from any more appeals. Ripple paid its $125 million fine for selling XRP to institutions, a bill they reportedly settled in cash.

This quiet end locked in Judge Analisa Torress game-changing ruling from July 2023. At the time, she drew a clear line in the sand that reshaped the industry –

• Institutional Sales – Ripple selling XRP directly to big-money players was an unregistered security offering.
• Programmatic Sales – In a huge win for the company, regular folks buying XRP on an exchange was a securities transaction.

That single distinction blew the doors open for XRP in America, bringing a sigh of relief and fresh interest to the secondary market.

The climb to $10 – What would it take？

Getting to $10 is a tall order. With nearly 60 billion tokens out there, XRP‘s total value would have to balloon to over $590 billion. That’s a staggering number, but not impossible in the wild world of crypto.

For a little context, look at the giants –

• Bitcoin (BTC) – Once soared to a market cap of $1.28 trillion.
• Ethereum (ETH) – Topped out at a respectable $571.67 billion.

To crack the $10 ceiling, XRP would need to muscle past Ethereums all-time best. This highlights the monumental push it needs from investors and real-world use.

Beyond payments – XRP Ledger explodes with new tools

The XRP Ledger (XRPL) is finally getting its hands dirty with real utility. The big story of 2025 was the 30 June launch of its EVM-compatible sidechain. In plain English, this means developers can now build on the XRPL using the same tools, like Solidity, that power the massive Ethereum network.

The response was immediate and impressive.

• Smart Contracts – Almost 1,400 smart contracts went live in the first week alone.
• Activity – The sidechain handled over 17,900 transactions in its initial run.
• New Users – More than 17,000 unique wallets have already jumped in.

This new capability is fueling a fresh Decentralized Finance (DeFi) scene on the ledger. The total value locked up in the ecosystem has shot past $100 million, thanks to its own automated market maker and Ripple‘s stablecoin – RLUSD. The XRPL is no longer a one-trick pony. Instead, it’s becoming a versatile platform catching the eye of serious developers and institutions.

On-demand liquidity – Ripples global push pays off

Ripples core product, On-Demand Liquidity (ODL), which uses XRP to settle international payments instantly, keeps stretching across the globe. This expansion is the foundation of the bullish argument for XRP, where more use cases create more demand.

ODLs recent wins speak for themselves,

• New Routes – Ripple has been busy opening up new payment channels, especially with partners in the U.S., Mexico, and Japan. A key deal with the UAE‘s biggest bank, Emirates NBD, will bring Ripple’s tech to the banks entire network.
• Growing Network – With ODL now active in markets that cover 80% of global remittances, Ripples roster has swelled to over 300 financial partners. Use has spiked in places like Southeast Asia and Latin America.
• A SWIFT Alternative – ODL settles payments in 3-5 seconds for pennies, a world away from the slow, costly traditional banking system. This speed and efficiency are convincing fintechs and banks to ditch the old ways.

Token supply – A gift with strings attached

XRPs tokenomics remain a hot topic, especially the 100 billion pre-mined tokens and how Ripple manages its stash. Back in 2017, the company locked 55 billion XRP in an escrow account that releases 1 billion tokens every month.

While this system was meant to create a predictable supply, it also looms over the market. But Ripple doesn‘t just dump these tokens. Instead, it often puts most of them right back into escrow. It’s typical to see 700-800 million of the monthly billion returned, with the rest funding ODL growth and other partnerships.

Theres also a built-in deflationary tick – A tiny bit of XRP is burned with every transaction on the ledger. While each burn is small, it ensures the total supply is always shrinking over the long run.

Expert takes for 2025 – All over the map

Ask ten analysts about XRP‘s 2025 price, and you’ll likely get ten different answers.

The Bulls – The optimistic crowd sees a path to anywhere from $5 to $8, with some even calling for a moonshot to $20 or $30. Chart watchers point to patterns like the “MVRV golden cross,” which once triggered a 630% rally, hinting at a potential run toward $22. They believe that with the lawsuit gone, big money and a possible spot XRP ETF are ready to pour in.

The Bears – The more grounded predictions put XRP somewhere between $1.80 and $4.09. These critics worry about fierce competition from other payment projects and the rise of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). They also cant ignore the massive supply of XRP still locked in escrow, which could put the brakes on any major price surge.

The big picture – Money, Politics, and Regulations

XRP doesnt exist on an island. As inflation cools and central banks consider cutting interest rates in 2025, more cash could flow into riskier assets like crypto. However, any major geopolitical flare-up could send investors running for safety, hurting the entire market.

While the U.S was tied up in court, the rest of the world has been rolling out the welcome mat for crypto.

• Japan: Has treated XRP as a crypto asset for years, leading to deep partnerships with giants like SBI Holdings.
• United Arab Emirates (UAE): Has become a crypto hotspot with clear rules, which Ripple has used to sign major banking deals.
• European Union: Its MiCA regulations offer a clear, unified rulebook that Ripple is leveraging to grow across the continent.
• United Kingdom: The country is building its own crypto framework, and its regulators have already said they dont see XRP as a security.

Such global acceptance gives XRP a strong tailwind, helping to balance any lingering hesitation from the U.S. market.

Wild cards – An IPO and the army

Two final factors could shake things up unpredictably,

• A Ripple IPO – The constant chatter about Ripple going public could be a massive stamp of approval, bringing in a flood of traditional capital. The flip side？ Some worry that investors might just buy Ripple stock instead, separating the company‘s success from the token’s price.
• The XRP Army – This fiercely loyal online community has a track record of driving conversation and defending XRP from bad press. Their passion is a powerful safety net for the tokens price, even if their sometimes-aggressive style can make conservative investors nervous.

The road to $10 is steep and full of “what ifs,” but a powerful mix of good news has put XRP in its best spot in years. A clear legal path, surging tech development, real-world adoption, and a friendlier global economy have laid out a trail to new highs in 2025. Even if it remains an ambitious climb.