Will Bitcoin Price Crash Like 2019 and 2020?

Bitcoin price

has remained at around $29,000 for most of the past week. This shows that the market is experiencing lag and lack of momentum, as well as reluctance to participate in this digital asset. One cause for this reluctance is the expectation that the Bitcoin price will experience another downturn before the bull market returns. However, one crypto analyst explains why this expectation may be broken this time.

Bitcoin Price May Not Repeat Like 2019-2020

Before the massive bull market during the 2020-2021 bull market, Bitcoin price experienced a volatile year. The bear market has weakened the digital asset, causing the Bitcoin price to drop more than 80% from its all-time high, and these falls will continue into 2020.

With Bitcoin price trending in line with previous trends, investors can understand that they are expecting a repeat of this trend. But an anonymous crypto analyst named “Tony The Bull” took to X (formerly Twitter) to use “recent influence” to explain why this might not be the case.

In the article, the crypto analyst uses an example of a town that has never been flooded before, suddenly experiencing a heavy downpour. Because it had never happened before, businesses didn't have flood insurance. However, as businesses resume operations, businesses begin to expect another flood and so they purchase flood insurance.

The analyst explains that despite measures to reduce the likelihood of flooding, people continue to operate with awareness of the impact of flooding. “This is how the brain works, following the most easily accessible information, the information that has most strongly influenced you recently,” the analyst said. “This is the so-called recent influence.”

Currently, investors are inclined to be affected by the recent bias in the crypto market. They expect that Bitcoin will repeat the same fluctuations as in 2019-2020, since that was the most recent recession. This means that the investor is operating on the knowledge of the most important recent event.

However, Tony The Bull notes that, similar to floods that have never happened before, we have experienced a once-in-a-lifetime pandemic. The probability that we will see a similar price movement in 2019 and 2020 is quite low.

BTC price sticking to previous trends？

The analyst's position is evidenced by the fact that the Bitcoin price has repeatedly deviated from historical trends during this cycle. One example is that while the price of this digital asset has dropped about 70% from its all-time high of $69,000, it has recovered almost 50% against ATH.

However, a similar trend was observed in 2019 when BTC price recovered above $11,000 mid-year. But by the end of the year, it had lost about half of those profits. The remaining profits are wiped out in early 2020.

If BTC continues to follow the previously established trend, the price of this digital asset could drop to $12,000 before the next bull cycle begins. However, now it's just a matter of waiting to see what happens.