Christmas is Approaching: What Lies Ahead for the Market Trends？

Today, the fear and greed index has reached 75, indicating an extremely greedy market state. With BTC surpassing $40,000, it has reclaimed its position as the 10th largest asset by global market capitalization.

According to Coinglassnode, the liquidation volume in the crypto market reached $260 million in the past 24 hours, with BTC liquidations exceeding $62 million.

The current price of BTC is mainly influenced by multiple factors, including the approval of BTC spot ETFs, the halving of BTC production, and the upcoming U.S. election. Additionally, concerns about a short-term decline in the market are arising due to the arrival of Christmas.

Data Backtrack: Limited Declines in Market Trends During Christmas

According to Coingecko data, the Bitcoin performance in the week around Christmas from 2015 to 2022 (December 22nd to December 28th) was approximately -3.5% (2015), 13.7% (2016), 6.9% (2017), -6.7% (2018), 1.5% (2019), 15.7% (2020), and 3.3% (2021).

Upon reviewing, it is observed that even when Bitcoin experiences a decline around Christmas, the magnitude of the decline is limited.

Profit Status of BTC Chips

As per on-chain data, 88% of BTC is currently in a profitable state. Historical data suggests that when the percentage of profitable addresses reaches higher levels, profit-taking from these addresses often occurs, leading to a subsequent decline in the BTC price.

Institutional Perspectives

According to the latest report from Matrixport, Bitcoin is expected to reach $63,140 by April 2024 and $125,000 by the end of 2024. The institution attributes this trend to historical patterns, mining reward halving, favorable geopolitical and macroeconomic factors, and anticipates a sustained bull market for the next three years.

Analysts from Standard Chartered Bank also mentioned in a recent report that the circulation speed of Bitcoin is at historically low levels, indicating a significant change in market sentiment compared to the previous bear market cycle. Their April prediction remains valid, stating that Bitcoin could reach $100,000 by the end of 2024. Geoff Kendrick, the Head of Foreign Exchange Research at Standard Chartered Bank, also pointed out that the main catalyst for the price increase would be the approval of several U.S. physically-backed Bitcoin ETFs. Kendrick and his team expect these approvals to happen “possibly faster than expected.”