Is today really Black Monday? The risk of a USA recession is growing

Today, the global markets opened the dance with a flood of red, so much so that this Monday can be defined as the new Black Monday of modern finance. Cryptocurrencies have been swept away by a wave of forced sales, with liquidations exceeding 1.36 billion dollars in just 24 hours. Meanwhile, the US and Asian stock indices have lost between 6% and 10%, reflecting a climate of fear fueled by an explosive mix of geopolitical tensions, aggressive economic policies, and growing signs of an impending recession.

Risk of US recession in 2025: forecasts double in a few days

According to the data from Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market platform, the probability that the United States will enter a recession in 2025 has experienced a dramatic surge. Until the end of February, the consensus was rather cautious, with a probability below 30%. But between March and early April, the scenario changed radically. On April 6, user bets indicate a recession risk above 65%, more than doubling in less than three weeks.

This sudden change in sentiment reflects the growing concern about macroeconomic instability and the impact of the protectionist policies adopted by the United States.

Bitcoin below $75,000: record liquidations and panic among investors

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Leading the panic was once again Bitcoin (BTC), which lost the critical threshold of $75,000, reaching lows of $74,666 on Crypto.com and other platforms. This technical break triggered a cascade of liquidations, wiping out billions in leveraged long positions.

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According to CoinGlass data, the total liquidations exceeded 1.36 billion dollars in the previous 24 hours:

• Bitcoin: over 392 million dollars liquidated in long positions
• Ethereum (ETH): about 328 million

• Altcoin (SOL, XRP, DOGE and others): almost 400 million

Cryptocurrencies in red: Ethereum, Solana, and XRP plummet by 20%

The cryptocurrencies have recorded double-digit losses, with Ether (ETH) down 20% to $1,449, Solana (SOL) plummeting below $100, and XRP stuck at $1.69. BNB also experienced a decline close to 10%, while mid and low-cap tokens sank between 10% and 20%.

About 86% of futures traders had positioned themselves long, betting on an imminent price rebound. However, the violence of the drop forced platforms to liquidate thousands of positions, accentuating the collapse.

Trumps tariffs unleash the storm: Wall Street and Asia collapse

The detonator of this “flash crash” global was the new trade policy announced by President Donald Trump. On April 4, Trump signed an executive order imposing significant tariffs on a wide range of imports from China and the European Union, as part of a strategy called “Liberation Day”.

The reaction of the markets was immediate and violent:

• S&P 500: -5.98%
• Nasdaq 100: -6.2%
• Dow Jones: -5.5%

The Asian markets also suffered heavy losses on Monday morning:

• Nikkei 225 (Japan): -8.9%
• Taiex (Taiwan): -10%, with activation of circuit breaker on TSMC and Foxconn
• Hang Seng (Hong Kong): -9%
• CSI300 (China): -5%

Kiyosaki: “Recession in progress. Next stop: depression”

Adding fuel to the fire was Robert Kiyosaki, author of the bestseller , who publicly stated:

According to Kiyosaki, the current crisis represents the end of financial security for millions of investors. His advice remains the same: flee from traditional assets and take refuge in gold, silver, and bitcoin, considered real assets in a collapsing system.

Technical analysis on Bitcoin: break of the 50W EMA and bear market risk

From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin has lost the 50-week moving average (EMA), a bearish signal that historically precedes long correction periods. If the trend does not reverse, the next key support is around $69,000, which is the previous all-time high and the average entry price of Michael Saylor.

The main “bluechip” tokens have lost over 20% in a single day. Some analysts see signs of overselling and possible rebounds, but the sentiment remains strongly bear.

The great escape: $11 trillion burned and record outflows

Fear is palpable even among institutional and retail investors. According to CNBC data, just last Friday 1.5 billion dollars were withdrawn from equity funds in less than three hours. March marked one of the largest monthly outflows in recent years.

The balance is very heavy: over 11 trillion dollars erased from the US markets since February 19, with only one day — April 4 — that saw losses of 3.25 trillion dollars, more than the entire value of the crypto market, which was 2.68 trillion.