Bitcoin and Ethereum Deliver Strong Q2 Gains, But History Warns of Summer Slowdown

Bitcoin Ethereum

Bitcoin and Ethereum Deliver Strong Q2 Gains, But History Warns of Summer Slowdown

With just one month left in the second quarter, both Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) have posted strong performances in Q2 2025.

According to trader Daan Crypto Trades, Bitcoin is up 27% while Ethereum has climbed 36.59% so far this quarter. The performance comes after a rocky Q1, particularly for ETH, which declined over 45%.

Q3: Historically the Weakest Quarter

While momentum remains bullish into June, Daan cautions that the upcoming Q3 has historically yielded the lowest returns for both BTC and ETH. This trend reflects the seasonal slowdown in market activity during the summer months. Looking at historical data:

• BTC Q3 Average Return: +6.03%
• BTC Q3 Median Return: –0.80%
• ETH Q3 Average Return: –0.88%
• Q3 Median Return: +6.51%

Notably, Q3 has produced negative returns in several recent years, particularly in 2022 and 2023, signaling a period of low volatility or downside risk.

Q4: Bitcoins Strongest Quarter Historically

The more promising seasonal window arrives in Q4, which has consistently been Bitcoins top-performing quarter:

• BTC Q4 Average Return: +85.42%
• BTC Q4 Median Return: +52.31%

Ethereum also performs well in Q4, posting an average return of +23.85% and a median of +22.59%. These figures suggest that while summer may offer reduced upside, investors often see renewed momentum in the final months of the year.

Conclusion

With Q2 wrapping up on a strong note, historical data suggests a cautious outlook for Q3 amid likely seasonal stagnation. However, if patterns hold, Q4 could offer renewed opportunity for bulls, especially in Bitcoin. As always, traders are advised to weigh seasonal trends alongside macro conditions and on-chain signals.