Crypto Cycle Mirrors 2017, May Peak in 2026

Crypto

Crypto Cycle Mirrors 2017, May Peak in 2026

Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal believes the current crypto market trajectory closely resembles the powerful bull cycle seen in 2017, but warns this cycle may unfold more slowly, possibly extending into Q2 2026.

In a recent video update, Pal called the current market structure “spookily similar to 2017,” citing consistent upward movement in Bitcoin with a likely blow-off top further down the line.

Pal emphasized that while the structure may appear familiar, the pace is different, largely due to macroeconomic headwinds. His Business Cycle Score—a proprietary model tracking the global economic position—is still below 50, indicating the market is in a recovery phase but far from full economic acceleration.

Echoes of 2017, but a Slower Climb

Pal referenced Bitcoins 2017 performance as a historical benchmark. The asset rose from $1,044 in January to over $14,000 by December, marking a 1,255% gain. Though Pal expects similar long-term gains in this cycle, he said weaker economic conditions and a falling U.S. dollar are slowing momentum.

“With the dollar breaking down even today, its starting to suggest this may go into Q2 2026,” Pal noted.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has declined nearly 9% year-to-date, falling to 98.77, making Bitcoin more attractive as a hedge. Historically, Bitcoin has had an inverse correlation with the dollar—when the dollar weakens, crypto demand tends to rise.

Macroeconomic Drag and Cycle Shift

Pal argued that macroeconomic delays—especially delayed interest rate adjustments and dollar stagnation—have pushed the crypto cycle back. He also suggested that the market today looks more like 2020 than 2021, implying that we may still be in the early acceleration phase.

In 2020, Bitcoin began at $7,174, dipped sharply in March, and then rallied 304% to end the year at nearly $29,000. Pal sees a similar trajectory unfolding now, albeit with a more stretched timeline.

Institutional Sentiment Growing, Blockchain Beyond Bitcoin

Pal also highlighted growing institutional interest, particularly in the Middle East. He met with sovereign wealth funds across Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Bahrain, and Qatar, all of which expressed strong interest in crypto, AI, and blockchain infrastructure.

“The mandate across the entire region is AI and blockchain,” Pal said, urging governments to go beyond viewing Bitcoin as just a store of value and instead begin building infrastructure on-chain.

Conclusion

While Raoul Pals outlook remains bullish, he cautions that this cycle may take longer to mature due to macroeconomic friction and slower institutional onboarding. If correct, the peak of the current cycle could be deferred to 2026, setting up an extended accumulation and growth period rather than a sharp, rapid bull run.