Will U.S. attack on Iran trigger Black Monday sell-off? Here’s what ChatGPT said

Finbold consulted ChatGPT, OpenAIs AI model, to assess how markets might react on Monday. The model flagged a high probability of a sharp sell-off in U.S. equities.

While not predicting a full collapse, the model cited escalating geopolitical tensions, rising oil prices, and investor anxiety as key drivers of a potential risk-off event.

Already, warning signs are emerging: cryptocurrencies have seen heavy losses, oil is surging, and capital is moving into safe havens like gold, which is on pace to add a record $80 billion in 2025.

ChatGPT noted that if Iran or its proxies disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about 20% of global oil, crude could surge past $100 per barrel. That would likely fuel inflation concerns and prompt central banks to maintain tighter policy, weighing further on equities.

MAJOR news from Iran:

Irans parliament officially approves CLOSING the Strait of Hormuz for the first time since 1972.

If approved by Irans top security body, shipments of 20+ MILLION barrels of oil PER DAY will be impacted.

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) June 22, 2025

A limited Iranian response may contain the fallout, but direct attacks on U.S. or Gulf energy infrastructure could trigger broad market panic. Investors are already repositioning ahead of the Monday open, with gold gaining and the dollar strengthening, signs of growing unease.

Scale of stock market correction

Still, a full-scale Black Monday isnt a certainty. Historically, markets drop 5% to 6% during geopolitical shocks but recover within weeks if escalation is avoided.

If the conflict deepens or drags on, a steeper correction, potentially 15% to 20%, remains possible. Energy, global trade, and high-growth tech stocks would be most exposed.

For now, ChatGPT expects a sharp but limited sell-off, likely in the 5 to 10% range, unless Irans response triggers a broader regional or energy crisis.