Ceasefire odds drop to 1% as US forces clash with IRGC in Iran

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Ceasefire odds drop to 1% as US forces clash with IRGC in Iran

Civilians and tribesmen are reportedly moving toward clashes between US forces and the IRGC in Iran. The odds of a ceasefire by April 7 have dropped to 1% YES, down from 2% yesterday.

The April 7 market drop shows growing doubt about a ceasefire soon. The April 15 market is also down, at 6% YES from 8%. The April 30 market fell to 18% YES, from 24% the previous day. Odds jump 19 points between April 30 and May 31, suggesting traders expect a catalyst then.

Despite a daily trading volume at $3.76M, actual USDC traded is $431K. It takes $12,352 to move the April 7 market price by 5 points, indicating a thin market easily swayed by large orders. The largest move was a 2-point spike on the April 30 market, hinting at brief optimism.

US airstrikes and civilian movements toward conflict zones reduce ceasefire hopes. While the sources tier 3 status may not be definitive, it supports a bearish view on peace talks. Traders betting against a ceasefire can buy a NO share at 99¢ on the April 7 market, paying out $1 if no resolution occurs — a small but likely return.

Watch for statements or actions from CENTCOM, Trump, and intermediaries like Oman and Qatar. Diplomatic moves could quickly change odds.