Matt Hougan Says Bitcoin May Need a New Price Target

Hougans explanation dates back to 2022, when the US removed Russia from the SWIFT dollar network. Countries noticed immediately. The weaponization of financial rails created demand for a neutral, apolitical alternative, and Bitcoin is the only credible candidate.

The Iran conflict provided the first uncomfortable confirmation, with Iran reportedly telling the Financial Times it would begin collecting Bitcoin tolls from ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

The Options Framework Behind the Surge

Hougan frames Bitcoins currency potential as an out-of-the-money call option, a speculative bet on an unlikely outcome that gains value when two things happen:

• The probability of hitting the target improves
• The volatility of the underlying market increases

During the Iran conflict, both happened simultaneously. The probability of Bitcoin being used in a currency-like manner increased. The volatility of the global monetary order increased. Both conditions push the value of that call option higher, which is why Bitcoin outperformed every major asset class during a period when most analysts expected it to fall.

What It Means for Price Targets

If Bitcoin‘s addressable market expands beyond the $38 trillion store of value space into a portion of the global currency market, Hougan’s existing $1 million target may be too low.

The store of value thesis got Bitcoin here. The currency thesis is what gets it somewhere much larger.