Bitcoin Power Law Model Sees BTC Fair Value Above $163K

The lower red support band historically marked deep bear market bottoms. The upper purple resistance line aligned closely with previous cycle blow-off tops.

The model assumes Bitcoins price growth follows a slowing but persistent adoption curve. Under that framework, volatility remains normal as long as the price stays inside the long-term channel.

Burnett argued that Bitcoin could eventually rise toward $1.5 million over time if the power law trend continues to hold across future cycles.

The projection comes as Bitcoin remains roughly 30% below previous highs and continues to struggle to fully regain momentum above the $80,000 region.

Supply Pressure Continues Near $77K to $85K

As per CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin recently rallied toward $82,000 before quickly reversing back toward the mid-$70,000 range. Analysts tracking on-chain flows say large amounts of older supply are still hitting the market.

Galaxy Digital research head Alex Thorn said roughly 4.45 million BTC likely changed hands since the October 2025 flash crash. A large portion of that supply reportedly came from holders who originally bought Bitcoin above $103,000.

Another 1.6 million BTC reportedly came from coins that last moved below $66,000, including roughly 237,000 BTC dormant since before the 2022 FTX collapse. Analysts said the continued movement of older coins suggests persistent sell-side pressure as Bitcoin trades between the mid-$70,000 and mid-$80,000 range.